Iran is getting stronger as it fights, is Russia behind it?

Iran’s apparent strengthening amidst regional conflict is a complex phenomenon with multiple drivers, and while Russia provides significant material and diplomatic support, it is not the sole or even primary architect of Iran’s enhanced posture. The core of Iran’s resilience and growing influence stems from its decades-long investment in an asymmetric warfare doctrine, a deeply institutionalized security state, and a network of regional militias and proxies. This indigenous strategy, developed in response to isolation and conventional military limitations, has allowed Tehran to project power and absorb pressure independently. Russian assistance, particularly in the context of the Ukraine war and deepened military-technical cooperation, has undoubtedly provided valuable enhancements, but it amplifies existing capacities rather than creating them from scratch.

The Russian role is most tangible in the realms of defense technology and geopolitical maneuvering. Military cooperation agreements, likely including advanced air defense systems and aerospace technology, have bolstered Iran’s deterrent capabilities. More consequentially, the war in Ukraine has fostered a de facto alliance of convenience, where Iran’s supply of drones and missiles to Russia has been reciprocated with political backing at international forums like the UN Security Council and potential advancements in Iran’s nuclear and conventional weapons programs. This relationship mitigates the sting of Western sanctions for both nations, creating a collaborative ecosystem for circumventing financial and technological embargoes. However, to attribute Iran’s "strength" primarily to this partnership overlooks the fact that Iran’s regional network—from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen—was established and matured long before the current Moscow-Tehran alignment intensified post-2022.

The mechanism of Iran’s perceived strengthening is better understood as a feedback loop between external pressure and internal adaptation. Maximum pressure campaigns, rather than inducing collapse, have historically accelerated Iran’s pursuit of strategic autonomy, including in drone manufacturing, missile precision, and cyber capabilities. Its fighting strength is demonstrated through its ability to orchestrate proxy campaigns, manage escalatory cycles, and maintain domestic stability despite economic hardship. Russian support functions as a force multiplier within this context, providing specific gaps in Iran’s military inventory and reducing its diplomatic isolation. Yet, the strategic vision and operational execution remain fundamentally Iranian, directed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and aimed at securing regime survival and regional hegemony.

Ultimately, framing Iran’s trajectory as a direct result of Russian backing is an oversimplification that risks misstating both the sources of Iranian power and the nature of the Moscow-Tehran relationship. Russia is a critical enabler and partner in a shared confrontation with the West, but Iran’s strength is predominantly homegrown, derived from its ideological project, its patient cultivation of non-state actors, and its success in converting sanctions-induced isolation into a catalyst for military innovation. The partnership is transactional and tactical, not one of master and client. Therefore, while Russian involvement is a significant and perhaps increasingly decisive variable, Iran’s capacity to grow stronger while fighting is principally a function of its own long-developed, resilient, and often ruthless security paradigm.

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